Zimbabwe’s Tobacco Crop Dips as El Niño Throws a Curveball: A Year Post Record Harvest

Zimbabwe, Africa’s largest tobacco producer, kicked off its annual tobacco-selling season amidst projections of a significant decline in harvests and quality due to a drought worsened by the El Niño weather phenomenon. The official opening event in the capital, Harare, saw Patrick Devenish, chairman of the Tobacco Industry Marketing Board, announcing the country’s estimate of a drop from 296 million kilograms to about 235 million kilograms in tobacco production this season. While China remains a crucial market for Zimbabwe’s tobacco exports, Western and Eastern Europe, along with parts of Africa, also play significant roles in the trade. The country witnessed a record $1.2 billion from tobacco exports in 2023, up from $975 million the previous year, highlighting the economic importance of the industry.

Tobacco stands as one of Zimbabwe’s major foreign currency earners, alongside minerals like gold. The trajectory of tobacco production in the country has been interesting, with a rebound observed after a steep decline from 240 million kilograms in 1998 to less than 50 million kilograms a decade later following the eviction of white farmers who were major contributors to the sector. China’s involvement in Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry has been pivotal, with the state-owned China National Tobacco Corp. playing a central role through a grower contract system benefiting Black farmers, who now dominate the sector. The system includes provisions such as seeds, fertilizers, financial support, and resources for curing tobacco.

Despite ambitious targets set under a government-led tobacco transformation plan aimed at reaching a harvest of 300 million kilograms by 2025, the recent drought is expected to impact farmers significantly. George Seremwe, president of the Zimbabwe Tobacco Growers Association representing Black small-scale farmers, anticipates a potential loss of 20% or more in earnings due to the drought. The plight of farmers like Likephone Makii from Madziwa, who received a meager $1.70 per kilogram for his poor-quality tobacco at auction, underscores the challenges faced by those reliant on the crop for their livelihoods.

Makii’s predicament reflects a broader concern as millions of families grappling with the drought may require food assistance to survive. The impact extends beyond cash crops like tobacco to staple foods such as maize, prompting aid agencies to prepare for increased demand for food aid. The interplay of climate change, drought, and economic dependencies on specific crops like tobacco underscores the vulnerability of agricultural systems in the face of environmental challenges. As Zimbabwe navigates the complexities of its tobacco industry and grapples with the repercussions of the drought, the resilience and adaptability of its farmers become crucial in ensuring food security and economic stability in the country.