Trinidad and Tobago’s Energy Future: Balancing Declining Oil, Deepwater Drilling & Green Hydrogen Transition

Trinidad and Tobago at a Crossroads: Navigating the Tension Between Fossil Fuel Legacy and a Sustainable Future

The Weight of History and the Limits of Oil

Trinidad and Tobago, once the crown jewel of the British Empire’s Caribbean energy portfolio, finds itself at a critical inflection point. The nation’s oil narrative is one of both triumph and cautionary tale—a story of how resource abundance can shape, and ultimately constrain, a country’s economic destiny. In the 1970s, the islands pulsed with the energy of 278,000 barrels of oil per day, fueling prosperity and global relevance. Today, that output has shriveled to just 54,000 barrels daily, exposing the frailty of an economy tethered to the volatile fortunes of fossil fuels.

This contraction is not simply a matter of lost revenue; it signals a deeper malaise. The so-called “Dutch disease,” where resource wealth crowds out innovation and diversification, has left Trinidad and Tobago with a narrow economic base and a mounting public debt burden. The Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, designed to smooth out the booms and busts, now seems more like a stopgap than a solution—a financial buffer that cannot mask the urgent need for structural transformation.

Deepwater Dilemmas: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Questions

Against this backdrop, the government’s recent partnership with ExxonMobil to explore a vast offshore deepwater block is both pragmatic and provocative. On one level, it’s a bid to shore up dwindling revenues and maintain energy security. Yet, this move also raises profound ethical and strategic questions. Is doubling down on fossil fuels a viable path in a world increasingly defined by decarbonization? Or does it risk locking the nation into a cycle of diminishing returns and environmental vulnerability?

The tension is palpable. Trinidad and Tobago is already among the world’s highest per capita carbon emitters, its environmental record marred by past disasters and persistent emissions. Deepwater exploration, with its technological complexity and ecological risks, may offer a temporary fiscal reprieve. But it also signals a troubling reluctance to break from a carbon-intensive past—particularly as global markets and regulatory frameworks tilt ever more decisively toward renewables.

The Promise and Peril of Green Transition

There are, however, glimmers of a more sustainable future. The government’s nascent interest in green hydrogen and offshore wind capacity hints at a willingness to reimagine the nation’s energy landscape. For business leaders and technologists, these early steps represent both a challenge and an opportunity: Can Trinidad and Tobago harness its human capital and geographic assets to leapfrog into the clean energy vanguard, or will inertia and entrenched interests slow the pace of change?

The stakes are high. Economic diversification is not merely a policy option—it is an existential imperative. As traditional energy sectors face mounting headwinds, the need to cultivate new industries, foster innovation, and build resilience has never been more acute. The global energy transition is accelerating, and the risk of stranded assets looms large for countries and companies slow to adapt. For Trinidad and Tobago, the question is whether the promise of renewables and green technology can be realized quickly enough to offset the decline of oil—and whether the nation’s leaders can summon the political will to drive that transformation.

Global Implications and the Path Forward

Trinidad and Tobago’s predicament is emblematic of a broader reckoning in international energy economics. The choices made by resource-rich nations today will reverberate far beyond their borders, shaping the contours of global markets and the trajectory of climate action. Multinational corporations like ExxonMobil, too, face a shifting landscape—one where the calculus of exploration and investment must account for evolving regulatory, ethical, and financial realities.

Fiscal instruments such as stabilization funds, once seen as prudent hedges, now require reimagining. Their role must expand from mere shock absorbers to engines of sustainable development, channeling public resources into the industries and infrastructure of the future. The business and technology communities, both local and global, have a stake in this evolution. The transition from extractive economies to diversified, green societies is neither automatic nor easy—but it is increasingly non-negotiable.

Trinidad and Tobago’s crossroads is a mirror for the world: a vivid reminder that the old certainties of fossil-fueled prosperity are fading, and that the path forward demands courage, creativity, and an unwavering commitment to sustainability.