Market Braces for Volatility: Key Events in October and November Could Spark Major S&P 500 Moves
Staff Editor Key Stock Market Catalysts Expected Before November
Investors are bracing for a series of significant market events in the coming weeks, with several key dates identified as potential catalysts for stock market movements. The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has temporarily eased market uncertainty, but attention now turns to upcoming economic reports and political events.
Bank of America has highlighted October 4, October 21, and November 1 as dates of particular importance for investors. However, the day following the U.S. Presidential election, November 6, is expected to be the most impactful.
November 6: Post-Election Market Reaction
The day after the Presidential election is anticipated to trigger substantial market activity. Bank of America estimates a potential 2.5% move in the S&P 500, either up or down, as markets begin to price in the policies of the newly elected President. This projection is supported by historical data, with the S&P 500 moving 2.2% on November 4, 2020, following the previous Presidential election.
October 4 and November 1: Nonfarm Payroll Reports
The release of nonfarm payroll reports for September and October on these dates is expected to cause market fluctuations. Options market data suggests just over a 1% move for the S&P 500 on each of these days. Positive jobs reports and PMI data could potentially boost stock prices, with Bank of America indicating that favorable news in these reports would likely benefit equities.
October 21: Mega-Cap Tech Earnings
This date marks the estimated start of third-quarter earnings announcements for mega-cap tech companies. Options prices indicate an implied move of 1% for the S&P 500. The earnings week of October 21-25 is anticipated to be a significant market catalyst, with investors closely watching for updates on the monetization of artificial intelligence technologies.
October 10: September CPI Print
While still important, the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) print is expected to have less impact on the stock market compared to other upcoming data. Options pricing suggests a daily swing of just under 1% for the S&P 500 on this date. Bank of America notes that with the Federal Reserve’s shift from inflation to labor market focus, labor market data has become more critical for investors to monitor.
As these key dates approach, market participants will be closely watching for potential shifts in economic indicators and policy directions that could influence stock market performance in the coming months.
