Kamala Harris Surges Ahead of Trump in Iowa Poll, Shaking Up Election Odds
Staff Editor Harris Edges Trump in Latest Iowa Poll, Shaking Up Betting Markets
A new Iowa poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points, a significant shift that has sent ripples through political betting markets.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31. With a margin of error of 3.4 points, the results indicate a notable change from September when Trump held a four-point lead.
This development has had an immediate impact on betting platforms. Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market, reported Harris’ odds of winning the election jumping from 35% to 50%. Her chances of securing the popular vote also saw a substantial increase, rising from 61% to 77%.
Similarly, Robinhood’s prediction market reflected a tightening race, with Trump’s lead narrowing from a 66% to 39% advantage to a much closer 52% to 51% margin.
The Iowa results are particularly noteworthy given Trump’s previous success in the state, having won it in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
This shift in polling and betting odds comes amid growing interest in political prediction markets. Kalshi reported over $100 million in bets placed for the October presidential election, while Polymarket, a platform not available to U.S. citizens, saw over $2 billion in betting volume for the U.S. election last month.
As the 2024 presidential race continues to evolve, these early indicators suggest a highly competitive contest ahead, with both candidates and their supporters closely watching every poll and market movement.
