Convention Ratings vs. Election Results: What Viewership Really Tells Us About 2020
Staff Editor Convention Viewership Offers Little Insight into Election Outcomes
As the election campaign draws to a close, both parties are vying for any advantage they can get. However, historical data suggests that television viewership of political conventions may not be the reliable indicator of electoral success that some might assume.
An analysis of the past 16 elections since 1960 reveals a split outcome: in half of these contests, the party with the most popular convention emerged victorious, while in the other half, they lost. This year, the Democrats averaged 20.6 million viewers for their convention, outpacing the Republicans’ 17 million. The viewership figures for Vice President Kamala Harris’ acceptance speech are still pending.
Despite the Democrats’ current lead in viewership, popularity in TV ratings doesn’t always translate to success at the ballot box. In fact, Democratic conventions have been more popular in 12 of the last 16 elections. While Democrats won 8 of those elections and secured the most votes in 10, there have been notable exceptions.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s convention slightly outperformed Donald Trump’s in viewership, yet Trump went on to win the presidency. Similarly, in 2008, John McCain’s convention drew more viewers than Barack Obama’s, despite Obama’s historic victory.
Experts suggest that people are more likely to watch their own party’s convention, which may explain some of these discrepancies. From 1976 to 1988, the party with the most-watched convention consistently lost the election. Factors such as nomination fights and historic selections, like Geraldine Ferraro’s vice-presidential nomination, can boost viewership without necessarily indicating broader electoral support.
Viewing patterns also tend to align with political leanings, with Republicans favoring Fox News and Democrats preferring MSNBC. Both conventions are highly produced TV events, often featuring celebrity appearances and entertainment segments to boost engagement.
As the campaigns enter their final stretch, it’s clear that while convention viewership may offer some insights, it’s far from a definitive predictor of electoral success.
