China’s Military Drills Near Taiwan: Experts Warn of Island Seizure Risk Within 6 Months
Staff Editor China’s Military Drills Raise Concerns Over Taiwan’s Vulnerable Islands
Recent Chinese military drills around Taiwan have sparked warnings from war analysts that China could seize some of Taiwan’s most vulnerable islands within the next six months. Experts caution that an aggressive, short-of-war campaign could force these islands into a quarantine, highlighting the critical role of the United States and its allies in maintaining Taiwan’s resistance.
A new report from The Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute details potential Chinese efforts to seize Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands. The report notes a spike in aggressive actions by the Chinese Coast Guard, suggesting an escalation of efforts to take control of the island group within a six-month timeframe.
This heightened tension follows the recent election of Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s president, marking a historic third consecutive presidential term for the DPP. Beijing has branded Lai as a separatist and implemented punitive measures aimed at Taiwan in response.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has conducted large-scale joint military exercises around Taiwan, seemingly aimed at eroding Taiwan’s control over its outlying islands. China has shifted from respecting Taiwan’s de facto jurisdiction to denying Taiwan’s claim over Kinmen and Matsu, asserting its right to conduct law enforcement patrols in these waters.
Analysts warn of a possible escalatory turning point involving a quarantine zone around Kinmen and Matsu. China could potentially use its Coast Guard to establish a quarantine, preventing the delivery of weapons or contraband to these islands.
This situation presents a grey area for US and allied response, complicated by US domestic politics and unpreparedness for a coercion campaign short of invasion. Experts recommend several steps for the US and its partners, including pre-bunking Chinese propaganda narratives, strengthening communication infrastructure in Taiwan’s outlying territories, and bolstering Taiwan’s maritime law enforcement.
The strategic importance of maintaining Taiwanese sovereignty over these outlying islands cannot be overstated. Washington faces a precarious balancing act in maintaining a working relationship with China while supporting Taiwan. Failure to defend Taiwan could have far-reaching implications for other US alliances in the region.
As tensions continue to rise, the international community watches closely, aware that the next six months could prove crucial in determining the future of Taiwan’s vulnerable islands and the broader geopolitical landscape of the Asia-Pacific region.
