Nvidia’s Q4 Earnings: AI Dominance Tested as Market Challenges and Competition Heat Up

Nvidia Set to Report Q4 Earnings Amid Market Challenges and AI Competition

Nvidia, the leading graphics processing unit (GPU) manufacturer, is poised to release its fourth-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday. The tech giant’s stock has experienced a 6% decline year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500’s 1% gain, as investors eagerly await insights into how the company plans to address competition from China’s DeepSeek AI model.

Analysts from various financial institutions have weighed in with their expectations for Nvidia’s performance. Mizuho analysts predict “in-line” earnings but caution about potential “growing pains.” Their focus is primarily on Nvidia’s data center revenue, which includes GPU chip sales. Mizuho anticipates a strong ramp-up of the Blackwell chip in the second half of the year, with key customers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet expected to increase their Blackwell GPU purchases. The firm rates Nvidia as “Outperform” with a $175 price target.

Wedbush analysts present a more optimistic outlook, expecting a strong performance from Nvidia. They foresee significant demand for Blackwell and AI Capex, with channel checks indicating no slowdown in AI enterprise deployments due to DeepSeek. According to Wedbush, customers are eager to secure Nvidia’s next-generation chips.

Bank of America’s analysis suggests Nvidia will exceed earnings estimates, projecting a 60% increase in 2025 data center revenue. Despite DeepSeek’s optimizations, the bank reports that spending intentions among large customers remain unchanged. Bank of America rates Nvidia as a “Buy” with a $190 price target and highlights the company’s upcoming GTC conference in March as a significant event.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Kunjan Sobhani believes Nvidia will meet revenue expectations and raise guidance. The company has reportedly addressed supply-chain delays and hyperscaler demand concerns, with initial shipments of Blackwell GPUs to key customers beginning in the fourth quarter. Profit margins are expected to improve in the second half of the year.

Financial estimates for Nvidia’s fourth quarter include a revenue projection of $38.25 billion, with data center revenue estimated at $34.06 billion. The company’s adjusted gross margin is expected to reach 73.5%, with adjusted operating income estimated at $24.69 billion and adjusted EPS at 84 cents.

Looking ahead to the first quarter, analysts project revenue of $42.26 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 72.1% and capital expenditure of $760 million.

As Nvidia prepares to unveil its latest financial results, the tech industry and investors alike will be watching closely to see how the company navigates the competitive landscape and capitalizes on the growing demand for AI technologies.